文章摘要
官文江,高 峰,雷 林,陈新军.渔业资源评估中的回顾性问题[J].上海海洋大学学报,2012,21(5):841-847
渔业资源评估中的回顾性问题
Retrospective problem in fishery stock assessment
  
DOI:
中文关键词: 回顾性问题  度量  原因  诊断  校正
英文关键词: retrospective problem  metric  causes  identifying  fixing
基金项目:国家高技术研究发展计划(2012AA092301,2012AA092303);上海市重点学科建设项目(S30702);上海海洋大学博士启动基金(A-2400-10-0138)
作者单位
官文江 上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院 
高 峰 上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院 
雷 林 上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院 
陈新军 上海海洋大学 海洋科学学院 
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中文摘要:
      回顾性问题是指,随着渔业数据逐年加入,渔业资源评估结果如资源量或捕捞死亡系数等出现系统性偏差。多种渔业资源应用不同评估模型进行渔业资源评估,其结果常存在回顾性问题,这使得渔业资源评估的结果存在不确定性,不利于渔业资源合理的管理与开发,因此,回顾性问题是目前渔业资源评估研究中的热点与难点之一。回顾性问题的度量目前主要采用MOHN ρ,产生回顾性问题的原因主要可归纳为数据错误与模型假设错误。目前,尽管有多种方法用于诊断、分析回顾性问题的成因,但这些方法均存在局限性。针对回顾性问题,渔业资源评估学者根据其研究对象的特点提出了校正回顾性问题的方法,但目前仍缺乏通用的方法或手段以校正或避免回顾性问题。在渔业资源评估中,若结果存在回顾性问题,则表明数据或模型假设存在问题。因此进行回顾性分析,是评估数据质量及检查数据与模型假设是否一致的有效手段。
英文摘要:
      Retrospective problem (RR) was defined as systematic biases in successive estimations of fishery parameters (typically stock biomass and fishing mortality) with additional years of data added in stock assessment. RP arising in many fishery stock assessments can potentially result in large uncertainty in fish stock biomass estimates, which will lead to over exploit or under exploit fish populations. RP is one of hot and hard topics in fishery stock assessment at present. The MOHN ρ was used mainly as the metric of RP and the cause of RP was reduced to errors in data or in assumption of models or both. At present, there were diverse methods for diagnoses of RP, but these methods were generally valid only in some specific case. The researchers working on fisheries stock assessment provided some methods to fix or avoid RP according to their specific study, but there was still a lack of general methods or means to correct or avoid RP. If RP occurred in a stock assessment, there must be some errors in data or assumption of the model. Therefore, Retrospective analysis was effective means to assess the quality of the data and check the consistency of assumption between data and the model.
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