文章摘要
高宏泉,钱芳.中国渔业用冰量的分析评估[J].上海海洋大学学报,2017,26(6):953-959.
GAO Hongquan,QIAN Fang.Estimation and analysis of the amount of fishery ice in China[J].Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2017,26(6):953-959.
中国渔业用冰量的分析评估
Estimation and analysis of the amount of fishery ice in China
投稿时间:2017-07-25  修订日期:2017-10-30
DOI:10.12024/jsou.20170702103
中文关键词: 渔业  用冰量  评估
英文关键词: fishery  ice demand  estimation
基金项目:2015国家社科重点项目(15ADZ009)
作者单位E-mail
高宏泉 全国水产技术推广总站、中国水产学会, 北京 100125  
钱芳 上海海洋大学 经济管理学院, 上海 201306 897034207@qq.com 
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中文摘要:
      随着我国渔业生产的发展,渔业用冰需求量逐渐增大,而我国目前尚无官方公布的渔业用冰需求量统计数据,制冰企业无法根据市场需求调节生产规模;制冰企业对用冰消费市场结构和发展趋势不掌握,直接造成制冰企业生产存在盲目性。通过建立经典的线性回归模型,估算出1995-2016年渔业用冰量,并与全国水产冷库制冰量趋势线相拟合,得出两者趋势一致的结论。表明估算得到的结果相对客观准确,符合我国渔业用冰的实际情况。通过异方差检验、平稳性检验、协整检验等一系列计量检验,表明回归模型不存在异方差,变量之间存在稳定及长期均衡关系,因而估算结果具有严格的统计意义。从总体趋势上看,我国的渔业用冰量不断增长,说明我国渔业生产规模正呈现不断扩大的趋势。进一步研究表明:我国涉渔第一产业预估用冰量占比较大,为40.74%,但年均增长率为3.04%;涉渔第二产业预估用冰量在三个产业中占比最小,为12.17%,但年均涨幅最高,达到7.99%;涉渔第三产业预估用冰量占比最高,为47.09%,且年均增长率为4.73%。预计到2030年,渔业总用冰量达到1 927万吨。
英文摘要:
      With the development of fishery production in China,the demand for ice in fishery is gradually increasing,and there is no official statistics for ice demand in fishery at present.So that ice-making enterprises cannot adjust production scale according to market demand.Ice-making enterprises have no control over the structure and development trend of ice consumption market,which directly causes the blindness of the production.In this article,through the establishment of the classical linear regression model,the ice volume curve of fishery in 1995—2016 is estimated and fitted with the national trend of ice production,indicating that the estimated results are relatively objective and accurate,in line with the actual situation of China's fishery ice.Through the heteroscedasticity testing,stationarity test,cointegration test and a series of metrology inspection,we find that there is no heteroscedasticity in the regression model,and there is a stable and long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables.Therefore,the estimation results are statistically significant.From the overall trend point of view,China's fishery ice consumption is growing,indicating that China's fishery production scale is showing a growing trend.Further research shows that the estimated amount of ice in the first fishery industry in China is relatively large,which is 40.74%,but the average annual growth rate is 3.04%.The estimated consumption of ice in the fishery secondary industry is the smallest of the three industries,about 12.17%,but the annual increase is the highest,reaching 7.99%.The estimated amount of ice in the third fishery industry is 47.09%,and the annual growth rate was 4.73%.By 2030,the total amount of ice in fisheries is expected to reach 1927 million tons.
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