中东太平洋渔业生态系统结构的长期变化
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S931.1

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上海市教委AI专项(A1-3405-25-000303);国家重点研发计划(2023YFD2401303);上海市自然科学基金(23ZR1427100);上海市科技创新行动计划(24YF2717100);中国博士后科学基金(2024M761924);上海市人才发展基金(2021078);“海洋十年”中国行动国际合作种子基金(GHZZ3702840002024020000024)


The long-term changes in fishery ecosystem structure in the Eastern Central Pacific
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    摘要:

    为了分析中东太平洋FAO77渔区渔业生态系统结构的长期变化特征,本研究基于1950—2019年中东太平洋FAO77渔区的渔业产量数据,通过主成分分析(Principal component analysis, PCA)和序列稳态转换分析(Sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts, STARS)等多元统计分析方法,识别了该生态系统功能组、适温组及代表性指数的稳态转换时间节点。结果显示,中东太平洋渔业生态系统结构呈现显著的年代际变化,稳态转换节点主要集中在20世纪50年代后期和70年代中期。20世纪50年代后期发生的稳态转换表现为底栖鱼类、岩礁性鱼类、软骨鱼类及无脊椎类等功能组产量的增加,同时伴随暖水种捕捞量的上升,并导致生态系统的平均营养级(Mean trophic level, MTL)和物种均匀度(Species evenness,EVE)的提高,反映了渔业开发初期对多样化资源的利用。20世纪70年代中期则出现了另一次关键转变,此时中上层鱼类和软骨鱼类产量显著增加,同时冷水种捕捞量有所上升,但生态系统的平均营养级、平均适温(Mean suitable temperature,MST)和物种均匀度却呈下降趋势。研究表明,中东太平洋渔业生态系统结构在过去70年间经历了2次主要的稳态转换,气候变化与人类捕捞活动的交互作用是塑造其演变轨迹的关键驱动力。本研究为解析中东太平洋渔业生态系统动态及制定适应性管理措施提供了科学依据。

    Abstract:

    To analyze the long-term characteristics of changes in the structure of the fishery ecosystem in the FAO 77 fishing area of the Eastern Central Pacific (ECP), this study utilized fishery catch data from the ECP FAO 77 area from 1950-2019. Combining multivariate statistical analysis methods, specifically Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Sequential T-test Analysis of Regime Shifts (STARS), we identified the regime shift time points for ecosystem functional groups, thermal adaptation groups, and representative indices (Mean Trophic Level, MTL; Mean Suitable Temperature, MST; and Species Evenness, EVE). The results indicate that the structure of the ECP fishery ecosystem exhibits significant decadal changes, with regime shift nodes primarily concentrated in the late 1950s and mid-1970s. The regime shift occurring in the late 1950s was characterized by an increase in the catches of functional groups such as benthic fish, reef-associated fish, cartilaginous fish, and invertebrates. This was accompanied by a rise in the catches of warm-water species, leading to an increase in the ecosystem's Mean Trophic Level (MTL) and Species Evenness (EVE), reflecting the utilization of diversified resources during the early stage of fishery development. Another pivotal shift occurred in the mid-1970s. At this time, there was a significant increase in the catches of pelagic fish and cartilaginous fish, while catches of cold-water species also increased. However, the ecosystem's Mean Trophic Level (MTL), Mean Suitable Temperature (MST), and Species Evenness (EVE) showed a declining trend. The study indicates that the structure of the ECP fishery ecosystem underwent two major regime shifts over the past 70 years, and the interactive effects of climate change and human fishing activities were key drivers shaping its evolutionary trajectory. This study provides a scientific basis for analyzing the dynamics of the ECP fishery ecosystem and formulating adaptive management measures.

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王倩,冯志萍,余为.中东太平洋渔业生态系统结构的长期变化[J].上海海洋大学学报,2026,35(1):292-304.
WANG Qian, FENG Zhiping, YU Wei. The long-term changes in fishery ecosystem structure in the Eastern Central Pacific[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2026,35(1):292-304.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-29
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-11
  • 录用日期:2025-09-10
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-08
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