全球甲壳类水产品贸易网络结构演变与风险传播研究
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F326.4;F752.7

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国家社会科学基金重大研究专项子课题(22VHQ006)


Structural evolution and risk propagation in global crustacean aquatic products trade network
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    摘要:

    为保障我国甲壳类水产品进口供应稳定,防范全球贸易网络风险传导,基于2014—2023年全球甲壳类水产品贸易数据,构建有向加权网络,分析其结构演变特征;构建综合中心性指标识别网络核心国家;运用SIR传染病模型模拟贸易风险传播过程,识别具体风险传播路径。结果显示,2014—2023年全球甲壳类水产品贸易网络具有小世界特性,整体呈现结构整合与区域集聚增强趋势;中美双极格局显著,中国于2022年超越美国成为网络核心节点,厄瓜多尔地位显著上升,印度尼西亚、泰国和日本的地位有所下降;核心国家的风险传播能力存在差异,美国、厄瓜多尔、加拿大、印度具有较强的初期风险传播能力,丹麦、挪威传播能力最弱。研究表明:(1)全球甲壳类贸易网络结构受外部冲击影响明显,核心国家地位存在动态调整,中国已逐步成为网络中最具影响力的枢纽;(2)网络核心国家的风险传播能力存在异质性,可划分为爆发型、渐进型、受限型与低影响型4类,中国属于受限型风险源;(3)中国虽已成为网络核心枢纽,但进口来源集中且出口网络传播深度有限,需通过拓展多元化进口渠道、优化出口网络结构以提升供应链韧性。

    Abstract:

    This study aims to safeguard the stable import supply of crustacean aquatic products in China and mitigate risks associated with the global trade network. Based on global crustacean trade data from 2014 to 2023, this paper constructs a directed weighted network to analyze its structural evolution characteristics. A comprehensive centrality indicator is developed to identify core countries within the network. The SIR epidemic model is employed to simulate the trade risk propagation process and identify specific propagation paths. The findings reveal that the global crustacean trade network from 2014 to 2023 exhibits small-world properties, with an overall trend toward structural integration and enhanced regional agglomeration. A distinct bipolar structure led by China and the United States is evident, with China surpassing the United States in 2022 to become the core node of the network. Ecuador's status has risen significantly, while the status of Indonesia, Thailand and Japan has declined. Core countries differ in their risk propagation capacity, with the United States, Ecuador, Canada, and India exhibiting strong initial capacity, while Denmark and Norway demonstrate the weakest. The research indicates that: (1) The structure of the global crustacean trade network is significantly influenced by external shocks, with dynamic adjustments in the status of core countries. China has gradually emerged as the most influential hub within the network. (2) Core countries' risk propagation capabilities exhibit heterogeneity, categorized into burst, progressive, restricted, and low-impact, with China classified as a restricted source. (3) Although China has become a core hub, its import sources remain concentrated and export network depth is limited, necessitating diversified import channels and optimized export network structures to enhance supply chain resilience.

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王倩,周玉奇.全球甲壳类水产品贸易网络结构演变与风险传播研究[J].上海海洋大学学报,2026,35(4):1106-1117.
WANG Qian, ZHOU Yuqi. Structural evolution and risk propagation in global crustacean aquatic products trade network[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2026,35(4):1106-1117.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-11
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-03
  • 录用日期:2026-01-22
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-04
  • 出版日期: 2026-07-31
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