基于溶解氧关键水层识别的秘鲁外海茎柔鱼渔场预报
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S931.4

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国家自然科学基金(32403031,3240210413);鹭江创新实验室自主部署科技项目(25FVOCWZ01);国家重点研发计划(2023YFD2401303)


Identification of key dissolved oxygen layers and its application to fishing ground prediction of Dosidicus gigas in the Peruvian Offshore
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    摘要:

    为响应渔业低碳化与数智化发展需求,解决渔场预测中溶解氧垂向剖面信息相关性强的问题,本研究以东南太平洋秘鲁外海茎柔鱼(Dosidicus gigas)渔场为研究对象,探讨溶解氧关键水层的客观识别方法在渔场智能预测中的适用性。基于2014—2021年秘鲁近海的茎柔鱼渔场作业数据及0~200 m溶解氧剖面数据,采用自组织映射神经网络(Self-organizing map, SOM)结合层次聚类分析,对31个溶解氧垂向深度层进行非线性降维,挖掘溶解氧垂直结构的非线性特征并识别关键代表层;在此基础上,整合气候因子(PDO、Ni?o 1+2),构建随机森林(Random forest,RF)、梯度提升回归树(Gradient boosting regression trees,GBRT)和TabPFN模型,对比分析完整溶解氧剖面与降维特征方案下茎柔鱼单位努力渔获量(Catch per unit effort,CPUE)的预测性能与空间分布特征。结果表明:(1)通过溶解氧垂向结构分析可稳定识别23 m与147 m两个关键水层;(2)降维特征可在不显著降低预测精度的前提下实现溶解氧信息的有效简化;(3)关键水层溶解氧在空间分布上与茎柔鱼CPUE高值区具有一致性特征,且CPUE与关键水层溶解氧呈正相关。本研究结果可为基于海洋环境监测数据的渔场智能预测与捕捞决策提供参考。

    Abstract:

    To support the low-carbon and digital transformation of fisheries and to address the strong intercorrelation of vertical dissolved oxygen (DO) profiles in fishing ground prediction,this study focuses on the Dosidicus gigas fishery off Peru in the Southeastern Pacific Ocean and investigates the applicability of objectively identifying key DO layers for intelligent fishing ground prediction. Based on fishing operation data from 2014 to 2021 and DO profile data from 0 to 200 m depth, a self-organizing map (SOM) combined with hierarchical cluster analysis was employed to perform nonlinear dimensionality reduction on 31 vertical DO layers, extract the nonlinear features of the vertical DO structure, and identify representative key layers. On this basis, climate factors, including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Ni?o 1+2 index, were further integrated to construct Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Regression Tree (GBRT), and TabPFN models, and to compare the predictive performance and spatial distribution characteristics of CPUE under full-profile and reduced-feature DO representation schemes. The results demonstrate that: (1) two key DO layers at depths of 23 m and 147 m can be stably identified through vertical DO structure analysis; (2) the reduced-feature scheme enables effective simplification of DO information without a significant loss of prediction accuracy; and (3) the spatial distribution of DO in the key layers is consistent with the high-value areas of jumbo flying squid CPUE, and CPUE is positively correlated with DO in the key layers. These findings provide a reference for intelligent fishing ground prediction and fishing decision-making based on ocean environmental monitoring data.

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张天蛟,杨茁,余为,袁红春,管礼.基于溶解氧关键水层识别的秘鲁外海茎柔鱼渔场预报[J].上海海洋大学学报,2026,35(5):1306-1316.
ZHANG Tianjiao, YANG Zhuo, YU Wei, YUAN Hongchun, GUAN Li. Identification of key dissolved oxygen layers and its application to fishing ground prediction of Dosidicus gigas in the Peruvian Offshore[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2026,35(5):1306-1316.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-31
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-06
  • 录用日期:2026-03-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-08
  • 出版日期: 2026-09-30
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