基于机器学习的DFAD影响下金枪鱼自由群CPUE时空分解与预测
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S931.1

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国家自然科学基金(32403031)


Spatio-temporal decomposition and prediction of CPUE for unassociated tuna schools under the influence of drifting fish aggregating devices using artificial intelligence
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    摘要:

    漂流人工集鱼装置(Drifting fish aggregating devices,DFAD)已广泛应用于金枪鱼围网渔业,其大规模部署可能改变鱼群聚集行为并影响自由鱼群捕获量分布。然而,DFAD对金枪鱼自由群分布的影响仍缺乏系统分析,相关预测模型亦较为有限。以中西太平洋围网渔业数据为基础,在假设捕捞效率相对稳定的条件下,以单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch per unit effort,CPUE)表征自由群捕捞水平,提出“背景场+残差”分解框架。首先利用环境变量和时间特征构建机器学习模型,建立自由群CPUE的环境背景场,并通过实际CPUE与背景场之差得到残差;随后构建不同时间滞后和空间邻域尺度的DFAD特征,采用随机森林筛选对残差预测贡献更高的时空信息组合。在此基础上,构建时空多任务模型对CPUE残差进行预测,并通过消融实验评估DFAD特征的作用。结果表明,DFAD特征在不同时间滞后时预测的表现不同,过去第3、4、5月DFAD特征重要性高于第2个月。模型在残差二分类任务中取得71.54%的预测准确率,优于不包含DFAD特征的对照模型。研究表明,该分解框架能够整合环境与DFAD特征,有效提升自由群CPUE异常变化的预测能力。

    Abstract:

    Drifting fish aggregating devices (DFAD) have been widely used in tuna purse seine fisheries, and their large-scale deployment may alter fish aggregation behavior and influence the distribution of unassociated tuna schools. However, systematic analyses of the impacts of DFAD on the distribution of unassociated tuna schools remain lacking, and related predictive models are still limited. Based on purse seine fishery data from the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, this study assumes relatively stable fishing efficiency and adopts catch per unit effort (CPUE) as an indicator of the catch level of unassociated schools, proposing a “background field + residual” decomposition framework. First, a machine learning model integrating environmental variables and temporal features was developed to construct the environmental background field of unassociated school CPUE, and the residual was defined as the difference between observed CPUE and the background field. DFAD features with different temporal lags and spatial neighborhood scales were then constructed, and a random forest model was used to identify spatiotemporal feature combinations with greater predictive contribution for residual prediction. Based on the selected features, a spatio-temporal multi-task model was further developed to predict CPUE residuals, and ablation experiments were conducted to evaluate the contribution of DFAD features. The results showed that DFAD features exhibited varying predictive performance at different temporal lags, with features with features at lags of 3, 4 and 5 months showing higher importance than those from the 2nd previous month. The proposed model achieved an accuracy of 71.54% in the residual binary classification task, outperforming the comparison model without DFAD related features. These findings indicate that the proposed decomposition framework can integrate environmental and DFAD features, effectively improving the prediction of anomalous variations in unassociated school CPUE.

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张天蛟,裴秦昊,宋利明,袁红春.基于机器学习的DFAD影响下金枪鱼自由群CPUE时空分解与预测[J].上海海洋大学学报,2026,35(5):1333-1344.
ZHANG Tianjiao, PEI Qinhao, SONG Liming, YUAN Hongchun. Spatio-temporal decomposition and prediction of CPUE for unassociated tuna schools under the influence of drifting fish aggregating devices using artificial intelligence[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University,2026,35(5):1333-1344.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-02-02
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-19
  • 录用日期:2026-05-19
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-08
  • 出版日期: 2026-09-30
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